MTC Market Insights

February 2, 2026

Resilient Growth, Cooling Inflation, Expanding Leadership

Key Takeaways

• The macro backdrop remains resilient, with strong U.S. growth, easing inflation, and steady labor conditions despite lingering distortions from the 2025 shutdown. Consumer spending is powering the expansion even as construction lags.

• Monetary policy is steady but politically fraught, as the Fed holds rates unchanged amid easing inflation, leadership uncertainty, and renewed challenges to central bank independence. Credit markets remain calm, and expectations point to one or two cuts later in 2026.

• Markets entered 2026 on solid footing, with global equities rallying, earnings poised for another quarter of growth, and geopolitical tensions—from Venezuela to Greenland—adding watchpoints but not yet disrupting the constructive tone.