MTC Market Insights

November 3, 2025

Strength Despite the Mixed Signals

Key Takeaways

• If the government shutdown that began on October 1, 2025 does not end by November 4, it will be the longest

  shutdown in U.S. history, surpassing the 34-day shutdown in 2018-2019.

• September inflation rose slower than expected at 0.3%, paving the way for the Fed to cut rates again by 0.25% on

  October 29, following a 0.25% cut last month, while sending mixed messages for a December rate cut¹.

• Equities continued to surprise on the upside, with all domestic indices achieving new highs, with the S&P 500 and

  Dow enjoying 6 consecutive positive month-end returns².

• As of October 24, for Q3 2025 (with 29% of S&P 500 companies reporting results), 87% of S&P 500 companies

  reported a positive EPS surprise and 83% of S&P 500 companies reported a positive revenue surprise².

Sources:

• 1 U.S. Federal Reserve

• 2 FactSet